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Vulnerable Favourites

How to spot market leaders whose chance may have been overestimated

 

 

This study was carried out a good while ago but its principles still apply just as much today.

 

Here is a table of all favourites that ran in the week 19-23 March 2001.

I have analysed the horses based on their form and their connections' form on the morning of the race.

 

We can clearly see that the favourites that won their races had far fewer question marks against them than the ones that lost.

 

Please note that the object of this exercise is to highlight the negative characteristics of the favourites - in that respect I have inserted 'OK' if there are no negatives, regardless of how positive the results of my analysis may be.

 

Please also note that Race Types in blue are races where most of the runners are making their racecourse debut.

 

Criteria required for 'OK':

 

Horse/Class: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to seriously compete in the class of today's race.

Horse/Track: Must have proven ability on either today's track or one with similar characteristics.

Horse/Recent: Analysis of general form over the last few weeks.

Horse/Dist: Must have shown the ability or obvious potential to run competitively over today's distance.

Horse/Draw: Highlight any obvious disadvantage if applicable.

Horse/Going: Must have shown an obvious ability to handle today's ground.

Trainer/Track: Trainer must have at least a 10% strike rate on today's track.

Trainer/Recent: Trainer must have had at least two placed or one winning horse in the last 14 days.

Jockey/Track: Jockey must have at least a 10% strike rate on today's track.

 

Performance of all favourites 19-23 March 2001

 Race/Favourite

Result

Horse

Trainer

Jockey

Date

Track Type Favourite Pos/Price Class Track

Recent

Dist Draw Going Track Recent Track
19-Mar Ling 2.25

7f

Hcp E

Anstand 2nd 7/4 OK Poor OK OK OK Poor Poor OK OK
19-Mar Ling 2.55

6f

Clm F

Charge 1st 4/7 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
19-Mar Ling 3.25

7f

Mdn E

Conspire 2nd 1/5 OK No exp

Not rn 6 mth

No exp OK No exp OK OK OK
19-Mar Ling 4.25

1m 2f

Sell G

Night City 1st 9/4J OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor
19-Mar Ling 4.25

1m 2f

Sell G

Barbason 7th 9/4J OK OK Poor OK OK OK OK OK Poor
19-Mar Ling 4.55

1m 5f

Hcp F

Gandon 7th 2/1 Not sure No exp OK No exp OK No exp OK OK Poor
19-Mar Sout 2.10

1m

Hcp F

Jessinca 2nd 11/4 OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor Poor OK
19-Mar Sout 2.40

7f

Clm F

Ron's Pet 1st 11/8 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
19-Mar Sout 3.10

1m

Mdn D

Greenhope 2nd 6/4 Not sure No exp Not rn 5 mth Poor OK No exp Poor OK OK
19-Mar Sout 3.40

1m 4f

Hcp C

Night Sight 1st 11/2 OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor OK Poor
19-Mar Sout 4.10

5f

Sell G

Blue Eyes 1st 11/8 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
19-Mar Sout 4.40

6f

Hcp E

Rude Awakening 4th 9/4 OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor OK Poor
19-Mar Sout 5.10

6f

Hcp E

Westfield Star 2nd 2/1 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar Font 2.30

2m 2f

MdHdF

De Tramuntana 1st Evs OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Not sure OK
20-Mar Font 3.00

2m 2f

HcHl E

Zapateado 4th 11/2 OK Not sure OK Not sure OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar Font 3.30

2m 2f

M Ch F

Moving Earth 1st 13/8 OK OK Not rn 5 mth Not sure OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar Font 4.00

2m 2f

NvHl D

Maximus 8th 5/4 OK OK OK Not sure OK OK OK OK Poor
20-Mar Font 4.30

3m 4f

HcChD

Around The Gale 4th 9/2J OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar Font 4.30

3m 4f

HcChD

Folly Road PU 9/2 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar Font 5.00

2m6.5f

HcHl F

Intox III PU 11/4 OK OK Poor Poor OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar Font 5.30

2m 2f

NvHl D

Phar From A Fiddle 2nd 11/4 Not sure OK Not sure Not sure OK OK OK Poor OK
20-Mar War 2.15

2m

HcChF

Little Worsall 7th 7/2 OK OK Jump bad OK OK OK No exp OK OK
20-Mar War 2.45

2m 4f

NvChE

Cadougold 1st Evs OK OK Not sure OK OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar War 3.15

2m 4f

HcChD

Grey Abbey 2nd 7/2 OK OK OK OK OK OK No exp Not sure OK
20-Mar War 3.45

3m

NvChC

Jolly Green Giant 1st 1/4 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar War 4.15

2m 5f

HcChB

Spring Grove 3rd 11/8 Not sure Not sure OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
20-Mar War 4.45

3m 2f

HcChF

Phoenix Phlyer 4th 5/1J Not sure OK OK Not sure OK Not sure Poor OK OK
20-Mar War 4.45

3m 2f

HcChF

Sireric PU 5/1J OK Not sure OK OK OK OK No exp Not sure Not sure
21-Mar Sout 1.45

1m

Hcp F

Calling The Shots 1st 5/2 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK
21-Mar Sout 2.15

6f

Mdn E

That's Jazz 4th 6/4 OK Not sure OK OK Poor OK OK OK OK
21-Mar Sout 2.45

1m 4f

Clm F

China Castle 1st 4/9 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor
21-Mar Sout 3.15

2m

Hcp E

Kent 2nd 7/4 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Not sure OK
21-Mar Sout 3.45

1m

Hcp F

Madame Jones 1st 11/4 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor
21-Mar Sout 4.15

7f

Stk E

Stormy Voyage 4th 13/8 OK Poor OK OK OK Not sure OK OK Not sure
21-Mar Sout 4.45

5f

Hcp F

Tempus Fugit 8th 7/2 OK Not sure Not sure OK OK Not sure OK OK Poor
21-Mar Sout 5.15

5f

Hcp F

Off Hire 3rd 4/1 OK Poor OK OK OK OK Poor Poor Not sure
22-Mar Don 1.30

1m 4f

Hcp F

Robandella 10th 8/1 OK Not sure OK OK OK Not sure OK Poor Poor
22-Mar Don 2.05

5f

CondC

Double Play 2nd 6/1 Not sure Not sure Never run Not sure OK Not sure OK Not sure Poor
22-Mar Don 2.35

1m2.5f

Hcp D

Compton Commander 2nd 3/1 Not sure Not sure OK OK OK OK Poor OK Poor
22-Mar Don 3.10

5f

Hcp B

Smokin Beau 7th 5/1 Not sure OK OK OK OK Not sure Not sure OK Poor
22-Mar Don 3.40

1m

Lstd A

Albarahin 2nd 4/5 OK OK Not rn 5 mth OK OK OK Poor Not sure Poor
22-Mar Don 4.10

1m

Mdn D

Gryffindor 1st 3/1J OK OK Not rn 8 mth OK OK Not sure Poor Not sure Poor
22-Mar Don 4.10

1m

Mdn D

Haasil 2nd 3/1J OK OK Not rn 5 mth OK OK Not sure OK Not sure Poor
22-Mar Don 4.40

1m2.5f

Hcp E

Final Dividend 13th 5/1 OK Not sure OK OK OK Not sure Poor OK Not sure
22-Mar Wolv 2.15

6f

Hcp F

Cedar Czar 6th 9/4 OK Not sure Not sure OK OK OK OK OK OK
22-Mar Wolv 2.45

1m

Stk F

Sea Ya Maite 1st 2/1 OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor OK OK
22-Mar Wolv 3.20

1m 4f

Mdn D

Serge Lifar 2nd 2/9 OK No exp Not rn 5 mth Not sure OK No exp OK Not sure Poor
22-Mar Wolv 3.50

1m 1f

Hcp E

Groundsfordivorce 5th 2/1 Not sure OK OK OK OK OK No exp OK OK
22-Mar Wolv 4.20

1m 4f

Sell G

Welsh Ploy 3rd 11/4 OK Poor OK OK OK OK Poor OK OK
22-Mar Wolv 4.50

7f

Hcp E

Guest Envoy 2nd 11/4 OK OK OK OK OK OK OK OK Poor
23-Mar Don 1.30

5f

Sell F

Villa Del Sol 2nd 7/4 Not sure Not sure Never run Not sure OK Not sure Poor OK OK
23-Mar Don 2.05

1m2.5f

Mdn D

Mr Combustible 2nd Evs OK Not sure

Not rn 6 mth

OK OK OK OK OK OK
23-Mar Don 2.35

2m 2f

Hcp C

Deano's Beano 3rd 11/8 Not sure OK No flat 4yr Not sure OK OK OK OK Poor
23-Mar Don 3.10

1m

Hcp B

Lucky Gitano 20th 7/2 No OK Not rn 4 mth OK OK OK OK OK OK
23-Mar Don 3.40

6f

Hcp C

Abbajabba 5th 4/1 OK OK Not rn 6 mth OK OK OK Poor OK Poor
23-Mar Don 4.10

7f

Mdn D

Amicable 1st 8/11 OK OK Not rn 6 mth OK OK Not sure OK OK OK

 

2000 - 2021 Professional Betting Advice and Strategy from cdsystems.

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