a Betfair exchange market is reasonably well-formed (ie the Book% is less
than 110%), then the behaviour of bookmakers' prices can be
speaking, bookmakers' prices will mirror trends on the Betfair
exchange. If a
Betfair exchange price starts to shorten, bookmakers' prices will follow suit
and vice versa (or at least when a Betfair exchange price drifts, bookmakers'
prices will either be held or lengthen, but they generally won't
shorten). Betfair exchange trend graphs (Price/Volume over time) are useful
for monitoring exchange price patterns and fluctuations.
when to snap up an early price
you can be confident that a bookmaker's early price is unlikely to
get any bigger and may, in fact, shorten fairly soon. Here's an
example: You have decided to bet at 6/4 (2.50) or bigger. The
Betfair exchange market is reaching a reasonably well-formed state (less than
110%) and is currently showing a Back price of 3.10. In addition,
there is plenty of backers' money waiting to be matched at 3.15, 3.20,
and 3.25. There are four bookmakers currently quoting. Three of them are
offering 2/1 (3.00) and the other is offering 9/4 (3.25). The
Betfair exchange trend graph (Price/Volume over time) shows a recent downward
trend (price contracting). This situation cries out for the 9/4 to
be taken. It is likely to disappear shortly, and so might some
of the 2/1 (3.00).
when to wait
it is far from obvious that a bookmaker's early price is the best
you are likely to be offered. Here's an example: You
have decided to bet at 6/4 (2.50) or bigger. The night before the
race there are two bookmakers offering 2/1 (3.00). The Betfair
exchange market is reaching a reasonably well-formed state (less than 110%)
and is currently showing a Back price of 3.20. This is a waiting
time. If the Betfair exchange price drifts to say 3.50, then at least one of
the bookmakers may go 9/4 (3.25) or a new bookmaker may come in at
9/4 (3.25) or even 5/2 (3.50). Later, the Betfair exchange price may swing back
the other way, down to 3.20 again. I would then take the 5/2 (3.50)
straight away and probably the 9/4 (3.25) too, remembering that my
lowest value point is 6/4 (2.50).
it is better to wait than to immediately snap up the best current
bookmaker price, especially if only two or three firms have opened
support for a runner, particularly when it occurs over a short
period of time during the early stages of a market, can result in
its price being cut to an artificially low level. Once that burst of
support has dried up, the price will begin to drift back out again
as layers recognise that it has become too short.
betting in stages
very top price for any bet will almost always appear on the
Betfair exchange, rather than with a bookmaker, but recognising when that peak has been reached is difficult
and you can never know for sure when it has arrived. For this reason, many investors like to
make their bets in stages. You don't always need to stake your
intended amount in one go. The trend graphs at the Betfair
exchange (Price/Volume over time) are useful when you can't sit and
watch price developments.
reason I prepare my bets very early (they are ready, at the
latest, in the early evening
for the following day's racing) is to
give investors every chance of hitting the top prices. Bookmakers
are now pricing up virtually every race the night before, thereby
presenting investors with more opportunities to exploit. Being
ready early provides options of going in straight away, waiting, or betting in stages.
Utilising these techniques, then assessing the wisdom of your
decisions with the benefit of hindsight, will improve your performance greatly.
Your anticipation will become much keener and you will start to hit
bigger prices on a regular basis.
race time, everyone likes to be sat on the biggest price that was
ever available, especially if the horse is going off at far
shorter odds. However, the important thing is that you have secured a
price which is bigger than your minimum value point. Regardless of
whether that happens to be the very top price, if you are
achieving this basic but crucial objective consistently with
virtually every bet you make, your investment
will thrive in the long term.